A story in the Chicago Tribune this Sunday discusses the experience of finishing last. “You gotta figure if you finished last,” says Jeff Kao (XXX Racing-AthletiCo), “it can only get better.”

I love talking to new racers who have just finished last or gotten dropped: “Well, that sucked,” they’ll say, “but it was the most fun I’ve ever had. When do I get to do it again?”

Kao’s perspective is a good one for new racers. Never in the history of cycling has there been a race without a last-place finisher, and as you begin the sport, there’s a good chance that last place will be you.

If you’re not last, you may find yourself dropped and riding alone, especially if you’re thrown into 4/5’s races with fitter, more experienced athletes. Except for the rare prodigy, most new racers should expect this. You’re going to suck. Even extremely fit riders may get dropped until they figure a few things out.

And getting dropped can be humbling, if not humiliating, especially for those with marathon or triathlon backgrounds, where they received medals and adulation merely for finishing. (In cycling, only winners receive medals.)

But there’s good news: Cycling has a quick learning curve. All it takes is patience and commitment (and maybe a little bit of time and money).

An unscientific survey of my team found that only about 40 percent made it through their first five races without getting dropped. Having observed dozens of new racers make it through their first few seasons, here’s how I would characterize the growth of riders who train consistently, pay attention and don’t give up:

1-10 races: You get dropped or finish at the back of the pack. You say a prayer before every turn. You wonder what you’ve gotten yourself into.

5-15 races: Something clicks. You stop getting dropped. You start noticing things. You can predict things. You grab wheels. You attack.  (This is why I recommend new racers do at least 10 races their first season. If things haven’t “clicked” by the end of the first year, it will be hard to come back the second year or be motivated in the off-season, and you’re likely to lose whatever you’ve gained.)

10-20 races: You contest sprints. You come in the money a few times. You recognize other people and can spot who’s strong.

15-25 races: You’re consistently in the top 10 and win a race or two. People start recognizing you. Time to upgrade to the 3’s.

The progression is predictable and rewarding, both to experience and to watch happen in others. Naturally, mileage varies. Natural talent or youth will help some find success much sooner than others.

As for Jeff? Well, he broke his leg this spring, but I have no doubt that he’ll be a valuable source by the time the Trib decides to chronicle the experience of finishing first.